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Episode 978: Broken Bones and Broken Records
Date November 17, 2016 Summary Ben and Sam banter about four pitchers with a broken bone, then answer listener emails about Ichiro, Bryce Harper, catchers, throwing games, whether players are making the most of their skills, and more. Topics * Hitters or plays you most want to watch * Predicting Bryce Harper's free agent contract * New data to evaluate catcher value * Franchise win-loss records * Throwing a game hypothetical * Impact of game theory to improve pitching skill Intro Porcupine Tree, "Four Chords That Made a Million" Outro The Super Friendz, "I'm Hard to Lose" Banter * Sam shares an article from the Los Angeles Times in the 1920s about four pitchers on the Chicago White Sox who broke bones while throwing. Email Questions * Chris: "Being in Japan, I'm treated to lots of live baseball featuring Japanese players and relatively advantageous time zones for watching games. After broadcasting every Marlins game for what felt like forever as Ichiro crawled to 3,000 hits, one of the networks is now showing every one of his MLB hits so far. They are doing so in 50 minute commercial free chunks, 500 hits per show, one after the other. By my math that means they show an Ichiro hit every 6 seconds on average. I watched two of these programs so have now seen enough infield singles to last quite a while. If you had to watch a similar program which hitter would you most and least want to see and why?" * Danny: "Did Bryce Harper's down year cost him any money in free agency?" * Sean: "Given the rise in data collection, what data would you want to collect to be able to more accurately assess the defensive value of catchers? It can be something currently measurable or something more sci-fi." * Ken: "Say a crime syndicate coerces some key, low paid players, to throw the World Series. Somehow it gets to a game seven and the favorites have become underdogs. Now an unwitting rival syndicate coerces the other team's key low paid players to throw the one game. Assume both starters are in on it. What happens when each set of players realizes the other is trying to lose? What kind of plays would be most problematic and farcical? Maybe a runner tries to get picked off but the pitcher overthrows the ball but the runner stumbles, etc? What strategy would you use if you were only worried about your own life?" * Sean: Forwards a series of tweets from sabermetrician Mitchel Lichtman: "I firmly believe that an exceptionally smart pitcher with average stuff would be a well-above average pitcher. ... Give me average MLB stuff and I guarantee I'd be a #1 starter." Sean asks, "How good do you think Mitchel Lichtman could be in MLB, or anyone with average stuff but well above average smarts? What is the upper extent that game theory could improve a pitcher?" Play Index * Sam uses the Play Index to look up every franchise's all-time record since 1913, to follow up on a 2011 article that pointed out that every expansion franchise has a losing cumulative record. This suggested that it is very hard to get out of the initial deficit from the terrible early years of a new team, even decades later. * The Yankees as a franchise averaged 93.3 wins assuming a 162-game season, a commanding lead over the second best team. * Only 9 of 30 teams have winning records as a franchise. In order: Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals, Giants, Red Sox, Indians, Tigers, Reds, and Angels (expansion). * This suggests that what's really going on is that baseball is lopsided, where a small number of teams are highly successful at the expense of everybody else. * There are several expansion franchises that are within 100 games of a .500 all-time record. * The Angels are barely above .500 at 4477-4465. * The Rays have the worst winning percentage of any franchise with a .462 all-time winning percentage. * The Phillies are the worst non-expansion team, just ahead of the Rays. * Even if you ignore the first five years, expansion teams are collectively only .482. * Sam returns to the original thesis that expansion teams are at a systemic disadvantage. Notes * Ben is disappointed that they cannot cold call any of the pitchers who broke bones while throwing. * Sam and Ben listed various supercuts they would like to see, not limited to hitters. ** Sam actually watched Jered Weaver strikeouts. ** Sam: Ivan Rodriguez throws to second base. ** Sam: Vladimir Guerrero outfield assists. ** Ben: Vladimir Guerrero swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. ** Ben: Pablo Sandoval hitting pitches outside the strike zone. ** Ben: Giancarlo Stanton hits, because he hits the ball harder than anyone. ** Sam: Any great hitter, say, Tony Gwynn, hits in order from left to right across the field. ** Ben notes that most hits look the same, unless you are a power hitter or a speedster. ** Sam: Line drives caught by the pitcher. ** Sam would watch Ichiro hits. ** Ben actually watched Jose Molina frames. ** Sam: Line drives hit into the dugout, including the reaction shot. ** Sam: Popups that hung in the air more than 7.5 seconds. Ben think that'd be boring. ** Sam: Pitchers failing to get the bunt down on two strikes. ** Ben: Pitchers reacting to giving up home runs. ** Sam: Runners who run through first base, then make a move to second base due to a bad throw, then realize they can't make it and have to scurry back to first base. ** Sam: Catchers getting crossed up. "That's one of my favorite things to watch in baseball." ** Sam: Emergency catchers. ** Sam: Third basemen playing balls down the line which have been called foul, but they still throw to first base. ** Sam: Third basemen diving for the ball and failing, but the shortstop goes into the hole and gets it. * Ben is skeptical that this year's performance will impact Bryce Harper's free agent contract amount if he improves the next two seasons. * Ben would like recordings of every catcher conversation. He doesn't think he could get anything from them, "but smart people could," by doing some statistical classification of how they interact with their pitchers. * Sam can't think of anything he would like. Ben offers every pitch called by the catcher and whether the pitcher shook him off. Sam doesn't think it's necessarily bad that the pitcher shakes off the catcher. He notes that Johnny Cueto will shake off a few signs even before Buster Posey puts a single sign down. "It's one of the greatest things in baseball right now." * Sam would like, for each pitch, to know how confident the pitcher was in the pitch and whether he thought it was the right pitch, and to know how difficult the hitter considered the pitch to hit and whether it matched what he was expecting. Sam points out that "sci-fi" was permitted by the question. * Sam says that during a summer in college he wrote a novella about two boxers who, unbeknownst to each other, had both taken money to throw the match. He refers to it as "total garbage" and "I would not be able to read a single paragraph of it." * Sam initially thinks throwing a game is easy, because a pitcher can lose a game without detection by making a few bad pitches at crucial moments. Then he realizes that a position player cannot do much damage on his own, because going 0-4 is not enough to lose the game, and making fielding errors is too obvious. It would require multiple position players, which risks exposing the scam. The question specifies "key low-paid players", which is too vague. They ask Ken for more details. * Ben considers the case where players aren't trying to be subtle about throwing the game. The pitcher can throw outside the zone (or even at the batter), but the hitter can swing anyway. Even if the catcher fails to catch the third strike, the batter could walk to the dugout and forfeit first base. * Before predicting Mitchel Lichtman's success as a pitcher, Sam notes, "One of the ways I feel like I try to get ahead in this world is by not speculating irresponsibly about things that might hurt people's feelings." Ben replies, "That's this whole podcast!" * Ben is initially doubtful, but realizes that Rich Hill improved dramatically by changing his pitch mix, so he ends with "hard to say." Sam thinks people underestimate how smart baseball players are, so he doesn't buy Lichtman's argument. Ben believes that you can become a better-than-average pitcher with average stuff, but not quite an ace. Ben notes that the pitcher is surrounded by coaches and trainers who provide significant value. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 978: Broken Bones and Broken Records * Ten things I didn't know about franchise all-time records by Chris Jaffe * Outta Left Field: The Only Rule Is It Has To Quirk by Dustin Palmateer documents Johnny Cueto's odd habits. * Mitchel Lichtman's claim that exceptional smarts could elevate average stuff to a #1 starter Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes